in the next confrontation, the other side will possess aerial intelligence
gathering resources
The UAV Arms Race
Terrorist organizations are acquiring UAVs, military organizations use them
for strike missions and enthusiasts can purchase advanced gliders for 300
Euro. How is the world preparing for this global revolution?
Alon Unger 21/6/2013
http://www.israeldefense.com/?CategoryID=483&ArticleID=2205
The UAV Arms Race The change has already taken place. Over the last year,
the world of UAVs has experienced a true revolution, at the conclusion of
which it may be stated that an "arms race" has begun in the field.
To fully understand this revolution (as opposed to slow, consistent
evolution), one needs to go back: the scope of the global market for UAVs
has shown a consistent and impressive growth trend for the past decade.
Following the atrocities of the September 2011 terror attacks, the US - the
world's leading UAV superpower - decided that the optimal modern response
for the need to cope with gaps concerning intelligence gathering and strikes
against Time Sensitive Targets (TST) is the UAV solution. Since then, more
than 1,500 types of UAV systems have been developed around the world, with
about one fifth developed in the US.
The UAV market has developed consistently, mainly in the western world,
which chose to solve the "fog of war" problem by means of UAV systems of
various types. Beyond the US borders, it was Israel that succeeded in
expanding the global deployment of UAV systems. However, a number of events
that occurred over the last year have pointed to a substantial change in the
global empowerment trend of unmanned systems and the expansion thereof into
an "arms race" phenomenon.
The first event was the entry of China and Russia into the UAV market, and
their declaration of their serious intention to capture a substantial share
of that market through price competition and selling to countries that
experience difficulties developing UAVs on their own or purchasing these
weapon systems from western countries.
The second event was the fall of the US stealth UAV, Lockheed Martin's
RQ-170 Sentinel, into the hands of Iran on December 4, 2011 and the
worldwide saga that ensued, starting with a denial and ending with an
admission by the US government. This incident introduced to the general
public around the globe the strategy behind unmanned vehicles and the
various functions they fulfill. Dozens of articles were published in the
various media on the subject of UAVs and related policy, missions and
developments.
However, by far the most influential factor in bringing about the change in
the global trend and initiating an all-out procurement effort was the
increasing number of strikes performed by US-produced Predator UAVs
recently.
The elimination of terrorist Anwar Al-Awlaki, a US citizen who had become a
senior Al-Qaeda leader in Yemen, led to furious responses by numerous US
organizations who blamed the Obama administration of resorting to summary
execution. Predator strikes conducted by the British Army led human rights
organizations in the UK to embark on a struggle against the use of these
measures and to various publications on the processes of "stripping" the
citizenship off terrorists of British nationality prior to their
elimination.
Human rights organizations, headed by Human Rights Watch, initiated a global
campaign against the use of strike UAVs, expanding their claims into an
apocalyptic prophecy where mankind violates Asimov's basic rules by
developing robotic systems capable of attacking targets independently. In
this context, they included Israel's Iron Dome system, among others, in the
category of offensive systems that make decisions independently, without
human involvement.
More than 76 countries around the world currently develop UAVs, but this
count does not include organizations that develop unmanned systems, such as
Hamas and Hezbollah, who understood the potential of undermining the
technological advantage of the western world, and have even begun employing
these systems operationally.
The present global arms race, which includes the development and acquisition
of various types of UAV systems (Mini-tactical-MALE, jet propelled and even
UCAVs – Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles), will transform the battlefield as we
know it. UCAVs, In particular, will contribute to this transformation as
they change the concept of aerial warfare and lead to the intelligent joint
employment of manned and unmanned vehicles.
The presence of UAVs in the hands of terrorist organizations and hostile
countries necessitates a change in both defensive and offensive concepts. In
order to fully utilize the capabilities of unmanned vehicles on the one
hand, and defend against those available to the enemy on the other hand, we
will be required to address various aspects of air defense, as well as
technological aspects of the immunity of navigation systems, communication
systems, flight control systems, et al.
Furthermore, the various forces operating on the ground must realize that in
the next confrontation, the other side will possess aerial intelligence
gathering resources, and prepare for it accordingly, in terms of combat
doctrines and weapon systems.
However, the new era in the world of UAVs does not apply to the military
field alone. It is also a period of loss of control (in every sense of the
word) over the aspects of UAVs for civil uses, by civilians. The backlog of
news items dealing with the issue of protecting human rights against "Big
Brother" hovering above has been augmented by two news items from March
2013: one about a baby killed by an unmanned helicopter model in Malaysia,
and the other about a near-miss incident – a serious civil aviation safety
issue – where an Alitalia captain reported spotting a hover drone at a range
of 200 meters from his aircraft on the final approach to JFK airport.
Today, complete kits can be purchased over the Internet for less than 300
Euro (especially hover drones, quadcopters, etc.). These kits are incredibly
simple to operate - often using a smartphone as a remote control device -
and have outstanding performance characteristics, making it possible
(whether by choice or due to lack of professionalism) to reach safety
extremes, which endanger the public and could infringe on individual
privacy. In the US and Germany, hover drones are used extensively for law
enforcement and internal security purposes. It was recently announced that a
sheriff in Montgomery, Texas, acquired an unmanned helicopter armed with
tear gas grenades for his department.
The simplicity and accessibility of unmanned systems among flying model
aircraft enthusiasts have made this activity a hit when a group called
"Black Sheep" photographed the statue of liberty and images of New York City
from a flying model aircraft and uploaded the footage to the web. This
phenomenon is becoming widespread in other places around the world, and it
seems to have gone out of control. Apparently, the legal attempts to forbid
dangerous flying of model aircraft and hover drones are doomed to fail owing
to the proliferation, low cost and simplicity of this technology. Even if
such statutes are enacted, it is doubtful whether they can be enforced as
the trend of using these systems for commercial purposes is expanding
rapidly.
Consequently, a different approach should be adopted in order to minimize
the risk to the general public. The legal way in which this hobby may be
enjoyed should also be explored, while heightening general awareness of the
potential risks through proper education and information.
Yet not everything is so wild and disorderly in the UAV world: the organized
civilian market is also developing as full size aircraft manufacturers enter
the field of unmanned vehicles. In particular, preparations are already
under way for the day when UAVs provide a substitute for cargo aircraft.
This huge market is based on the US government's demand for "open skies" by
2015. Even if it takes a few more years, transport aircraft with no pilot
windows may be become a common sight within the next decade
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